Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.028961 4.395749 4.802169 5.290219 5.866313 6.532445 7.372747
2025-01-05 3.463681 3.925210 4.471597 5.179818 6.095357 7.272981 8.965683
2025-01-12 3.106826 3.605699 4.221949 5.062954 6.223018 7.841760 10.436615
2025-01-19 2.818934 3.324455 3.967332 4.877185 6.193555 8.150017 11.584523
2025-01-26 2.694186 3.231339 3.935918 4.973657 6.558696 9.098669 14.109913
2025-02-02 2.627472 3.203484 3.982487 5.177328 7.110081 10.479540 18.152146
2025-02-09 2.545226 3.144820 3.976344 5.296179 7.541291 11.773789 22.943632
2025-02-16 2.423151 3.020413 3.862679 5.231073 7.642339 12.457040 26.770510
2025-02-23 2.321610 2.917305 3.770472 5.187294 7.770228 13.233906 31.740323
2025-03-02 2.228567 2.820031 3.678653 5.132451 7.865590 13.969312 37.626122
2025-03-09 2.145331 2.731834 3.593722 5.079245 7.953671 14.720524 45.026861
2025-03-16 2.080679 2.667046 3.539916 5.073259 8.135035 15.787598 56.998072
2025-03-23 2.037618 2.633174 3.534020 5.154900 8.525737 17.663494 83.842419
2025-03-30 1.959431 2.542579 3.431872 5.051871 8.493832 18.251052 104.089433
2025-04-06 1.885516 2.455139 3.329791 4.939947 8.424728 18.703052 128.982526
2025-04-13 1.803705 2.352423 3.197700 4.761528 8.175985 18.443351 141.160125
2025-04-20 1.779507 2.337042 3.207910 4.854217 8.591310 20.869237 299.218530
2025-04-27 1.775004 2.351575 3.268158 5.049744 9.308646 25.194335 3935.872940
2025-05-04 1.755916 2.342048 3.286685 5.163746 9.845162 29.396864 NaN
2025-05-11 1.709110 2.286441 3.222582 5.101304 9.879030 30.963469 NaN
2025-05-18 1.668286 2.238925 3.170245 5.059306 9.966304 33.018477 NaN
2025-05-25 1.628109 2.191037 3.114985 5.006679 10.014076 34.942653 NaN
2025-06-01 1.590319 2.145757 3.062302 4.955609 10.059294 36.992089 NaN